NBA best bets: 3 Picks for Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 6

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Saturday, May 18, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Under 209.5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

If we look at the home/road splits for the Oklahoma City Thunder, they’re in a good spot for an under. While the Thunder do like to push the pace away from home, that hasn’t fared well for them. They have a 103.6 Offensive Rating on the road, which is 11th among all 16 playoff teams. The only teams with worse road offenses have already been eliminated.

The OKC defense travels well and should give Dallas — which ranks just 10th in home offense — enough trouble to keep this under the total. Add in the trend of Game 6 unders (94-69 to the under since 2005) and that’s enough for me to bank on minimal scoring Saturday night.

This total has been on the move since it opened at 211.5, but I’d still bet it down to 207.

Pick: Under 209.5

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Mavericks -3.5 (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

I bet Dallas to win the series, I bet Dallas in 6 and this is Game 6.

It's that simple for me.

The Mavs are at home against a young Oklahoma City team looking for answers. They have Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, two of the best big-game players left in the playoffs, and their defense has found legitimate answers in defending OKC drives and encouraging long-range shots. OKC is only at 32.7% from three.

My worry is positive regression for the Thunder in the shooting department, but the Mavericks haven't even gotten amazing production from Dončić or Irving, and this is a takeover spot for at least one of them.

Pick: Mavericks -3.5

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Luguentz Dort Over 2.5 1Q Points (-118, DraftKings)

By Braxton Reynolds

Leading up to this series against Dallas, Luguentz Dort recorded at least three first-quarter points in 55-of-83 games, a 66% hit rate. So far, the veteran has accomplished this feat in 3-of-5 games this series despite his shooting woes.

The Mavericks are packing the paint against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which has facilitated semi-contested perimeter jumpers for OKC's spot-up shooters. Dort has benefited the most from a volume perspective; his 34 3-point attempts easily lead the Thunder.

He's averaging 3.6 field goal attempts, 2.6 attempts from deep and 1.2 wide open 3-point attempts in the first quarter this series, so his usage is excellent for a mere three points. Although his efficiency has been poor (32% from 3), Dort's volume should be enough to compensate.

I would play this line down to -145.

Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 2.5 1Q Points (-118)